Most new business ideas aren’t very good.  That doesn’t mean we should all stop coming up with them – quite the contrary.

But I’ve started to notice some common rally cries meant to support how ‘great’ an idea will be that are poor, lazy assumptions.

We all know what assumptions lead to.

Whether you are the point man leading a new idea or a possible investor, watch out for these.

(Let this stand as a personal reminder to myself as much as anything.  I only list each of these because I feel myself doing them over and over again.)

“The existing sites in this niche all suck.”
Usually this is an opinion on a combination of factors – site design, SEO strength, lack of dedicated competitors, lack of PPC competitors, and the like.

There are many reasons this is irrelevant to deciding if you should start a business in said niche.  Trust me, it doesn’t matter if you think the existing competition have ‘bad websites’.

“I’ve never heard of anything like this.”
You haven’t?  Neither has your buddy, your mom, or the angel group you talked to?  Wow. Sign me up.

Every idea has been tried before.  You need to find others who’ve attempted your idea, or at least something very similar.  It’s more productive to discuss past attempts or similar businesses, how they’ve done well in some aspects and failed in others, than to take 20 minutes to research and boldly state: I have conjured up the most unique idea in the history of Man.

“I have an idea for a business.  [pause]  That’s as far as I’ve gotten.”
That’s great.  Can you ask her to re-fill my scotch?  I have to go outside now.

“In 2013, we should be banking $2,000,000.”
You have no idea what the future holds, what you’re business will be by then or how you’ll get there.  I love a lofty goal (and I still will set them), but assuming a dollar figure and how you’ll get there is ridiculous.

“Just replicate that over 50 states/1,000 cities/___ groups, that’s huge.”
Making an idea or business work in one small sector is awesome.  It’s hard.

Shit does not scale to the rest of the United States just because you made it work in Bloomfield.  The real flaw here is ignoring the amount of bareknuckle sales work it takes to scale from local to national.  It takes talent, time, money.  It’s not overnight, even if it works.

“Someone came to our site!”
Good.  What did they want?  Did we give it to them?  Did that even pay for our electric bill?

The internet game is all about traffic and lots of it. Get traffic, give them what they want so they convert.  A few small fleeting visits can point to you being on the right track . . . only if you learn something from them to 1) get them to come back 2) get more people to come 3) get them to convert.

Remember Son, Things Change
Timing is incredibly important in determining if a business idea succeeds.  It makes it hard and somewhat foolish to try to copy other businesses you read about in Inc.  There are no overnight successes, and you’re starting much later than your idol company.

The competitive environment will also change quickly.  How you can acquire customers will change – organic, paid, social, affiliate – constant state of flux.  Don’t bank on how it works today working tomorrow.

There is now way you know what people want without asking them first.

Your friend,
Reality

Photo: alibubba